Winners and Losers week 6
We’re just about one third of the way through the season and so far we’ve learned more about two high safety defences than we ever thought we would. The era of high-volume scoring has seen a drastic step back this year and discussion has been centred around the lack of great teams. Indeed, there appears to be just two teams that stand above the rest currently while everyone else is fighting to be taken seriously. There was upsets galore this week but it’s telling that few of them were all that surprising. In total, there was 8 games where underdogs covered the spread this week which seems like a lot but is actually less than we’ve had the past two weeks. It’s only the nature of some losses that give the impression that this was a particularly upset heavy week. Given we are roughly a third into the season however, I’ve decided to spend more time covering some extra winners and losers this week
Winners
Eagles
Let’s start with the most hated rival of my own team and the best team in the whole NFC. Philly have gone again notched a win to stay undefeated by doing what they’ve done all season. All season long the Eagles have faced some pretty terrible QB’s and abused teams for trotting them out there by generating 17 sacks (top 10 in the league) and forcing 9 INT’s (good for 2nd). All this while the offence plays mistake free football. Hurts has just two INT’s on the year and hasn’t fumbled it once despite his rushing prowess. If this is sounding vaugley familiar to what Dallas does (minus the rushing QB part), that’s because it is. They may move the ball quite differently but both teams share a similar overall philosophy on how a game script should be carried out. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that this game largely went as most diehard NFC East fans thought it would. Dallas started the game with a 3 and out as Philly loaded the box on third and short. While a Dorrance Armstrong sack would force Hurts to fail a long third down attempt. After another Dallas punt off an errant Cooper Rush pass, Philly opened the playbook. Apparently the best way to stop Micah Parsons from ruining your offence is not block him at all. By going with an RPO heavy gameplan, Hurts essentially froze Parsons in place, forcing him to either commit to a rush, spy on Hurts or try and cover the WR who’s leaking out. Combine that with Hurt’s ability to juke rushers out of their shoes and all the sudden moving the ball against this vaunted defence seemed possible. As a result, a TD would be scored, putting pressure on Dallas to respond. They did so by throwing an INT as a result of an incredibly Bradbury play. All the sudden, Cooper Rush had made a mistake in his own half of the field while down 7-0. For Dak, this likely isn’t a game breaking mistake but for Rush, it was. Especially after AJ Brown would punch it in to make it 14-0. It was a pretty remarkable play call on the part of Siriani to get Brown open. Brown is lined up in the backfield sitting in an offset pistol position while Hurts is in shotgun with Sanders to his right. As the ball is snapped, Brown runs a sweep in the backfield, Hurts has the option to hand it off to Sanders or pass it to brown depending on Parsons reacts. Parsons is frozen in place, Brown gets by him and is able to walk it in for a score.
It seemed like it couldn’t go any better for the Eagles. Only it could as the refs somehow marked a clear first down as short. Instead of challenging, Mcarthy opted to call a hurry up play on 4th and one from the Dallas 34, hoping to catch the Eagles off guard. No one was surprised however and a badly thrown ball by Rush was broken up. The subsequent Philly drive would result in a FG while Cooper Rush would throw yet another INT, this time to Kirk Cousins favourite target in that of Darius Slay. It was an ill advised ball right from the start as Slay would undercut the route and all but seal this game up before halftime. Yet despite that, it would only be another FG for the Eagles while Dallas would respond on their final drive to set the halftime score at 20-3. That sounds like a commanding lead, and it is. But it seemed like the lead should be larger given the dominance of the first half. Some of that stems from settling for two FG’s. But it’s also a result of the long, clock killing drives the Eagles have had this season. Which makes the difference between TD’s and FG’s all the greater given there’s so fewer possessions in Eagles games, especially if the offence has a three and out or two. Which is more or less what the Eagles had in the second half as Dallas would fire off two time consuming drives of their own, resulting in a pair of TD’s and with 14 to go left in the game, it was now just a 3 point game.
But Philly would finally do what great teams do. They marched down the field, dominating the Dallas defence through small gainers before finally punching it in the endzone off a wonderfully schemed up play for Devonta Smith. Just like that, the game went from a Philly choke job to seemingly inevitably over. Dallas would get another couple chances to bring it close but both possessions ended from signs of desperation. First it was yet another ill-advised Cooper Rush INT while the other was a 59 yard FG that had more people worried about a backdoor cover than it had to do with a last second rally.
It was always going to be tricky game to evaluate for Philly. If they won, people would say they beat up on a backup QB who won’t be there in their next matchup. If they had lost, people would have called the Eagles fraudulent. Instead, the Eagles did what they needed to do and through some unique play-calling, carved up one of the best defensive lines in the NFC. That can’t be taken away regardless of how Cooper Rush played. Once again, the Philly offence would have its moments of vanishing and letting teams back in the game that they had dead and buried. But like most of their wins this season, they came up with a long TD drive when they needed it and sealed the victory.
Vikings
That’s right, you’ve read it correctly. I finally included this 5-1 squad on the list again as every sports writer continues to reluctantly include the Vikings in any and all SB chatter. Their wins are almost always ugly as hell but on some level, we can’t all continue to ignore the record, no matter how strong or weak it may appear. It started off ugly for the Vikings as they had four straight 3 and outs while Miami would kill their own drives with penalties. A FG in the second by the Dolphins finally opened the scoring before Kirk remembered he has both Thielen and Jefferson to throw to as he marched down the field to Miami’s one. There, Irv Smith got wide open off a play action fake and finally it appeared that we had a ball game. But Sota would go three out on it’s ensuing possession but would get a FG to close the half after a hilarious and absurd INT by Harrison gave the Vikings a chip shot FG at the 34. It really did appear like Sota didn’t want to win this game as despite Miami giving them countless opportunities to take over, the Vikings were simply incapable of moving the ball throughout most of this game, which included the third quarter as they produced three more 3 and outs.
But the levee would finally break in the 4th as we saw both teams notch a couple TD’s. Firstly it was Sota as Jefferson broke off a huge chunk play to bring it to the one before Thielen found the end zone. Miami would score right back after a couple big plays from Gisecki and Hill. Of course, it wouldn’t be a quarter without a Sota 3 and out but fortunately for them, Waddle would fumble giving it straight back. The seas would then part for Dalvin Cook as he rumbled it in for a long score. A successful 2pt conversion later and Sota were up 24-10 with just 3:15 left in a game where they had been largely ineffective on offence throughout most of the game. Teddy Bridgewater would throw a dumb INT into double coverage on the ensuing possession so the game seemed all but wrapped up. But no as Sota would once again go three and out, giving Miami one final hope in this dog water game. They’d march down the field quickly and score with 1:24 left on the clock. It would turn out to be a superficial score as the Vikings recovered the onside kick and went into victory position.
This was an incredibly ugly game to dive through and exemplifies why so few people want to rate the Vikings as good this year. Throughout most of the game defensive the offensive talent and facing a third string QB for a half, Minnesota were incapable of moving the football. Out of the 14 offensive possessions they had (not including the kneel down at the end), Minnesota had 10 three and out’s. This against a defence that’s notorious for giving big plays. That’s astoundingly bad and would ordinarily lose you the game. But the Vikingsg defence held up extremely well and although the box score is harsher on Bridgewater than how he actually played, neither he nor Skyler Thompson are the teams starting QB’s. It’s hard not to wonder that had they played this game with Tua under the helm, they’d have lost. However, much like the Eagles victory, you can only beat what’s in front of you. While Sota continue to win some horrifically ugly football games, they nonetheless continue to win games and pull ahead in their division where they possess a two-win advantage as well as owning the tiebreaker over GB.
Jets
I almost had them in the winners column last week after the dominant win against the Dolphins. But give Miami was rolling with a third string QB 2 plays into the game, I figured it best to show some restraint and go for a more wait and see approach. Well the wait is over as for the second consecutive week, a NY based team has beaten the Packers. While the Giants victory was close against GB, this one was not. It all started ugly as neither team was able to do more than string together the occasional first down or two as the pass rushes of both teams would dominate the early going. After a spectacular catch by Allen Lazard, it seemed like scoring would finally open up. We should all know better though as GB’s special teams would haunt them for yet another season and Quinnen Williams blocked the Packers FG attempt. After a fumble by AJ Dillion, the Jets would snag a FG of their own to take the lead before GB would tie it up at the end of the half.
If this sounds like a rehash of the Sota game, that’s because it more or less was in the first half. Thankfully though, some remarkably busted defensive assignments would get the Jets (and this game) a TD as they took a 10-3 lead. Remember how I talked about the Packers busted special teams? Well it happened again as seemingly no one decided to block Michael Clemons on a punt block and the Jets returned it for 6. To the Packers credit though, they’d fire back and make it just a one score game entering the 4th. That’s as close as they’d make it however with the Jets driving down the field and returning the favour, pushing the score back up to 24-10 . Another FG off a 14 play drive that featured 60 rushing yards and 0 passing yards would seal the game as for the second time this season, we saw Jordan love trotted out onto the field.
It was the third straight win for the Jets and while the game was a bit closer than the final score indicates, it’s hard to deny them their place off the winners list, having now achieved a 4-2 record while winning their last 3 games. Zach Wilson didn’t play a great game as he’s still only thrown for a single TD this season. There’s little he’s done so far has inspired much confidence as the future of this franchise. But currently, it doesn’t seem to matter too much as the young nucleus of this team is doing work. Sauce Gardner has been astounding draft choice for them, locking down opposing WR’s at every turn while Breece Hall and Garett Wilson appear to be this teams biggest offensive threats. Although Garett hasn’t done much with Zach under the helm, it’s hard to ignore what his impact looked like with Flacco under centre. Finally, Quinnen Williams appears to have finally delivered on all his pre-draft promise as he dismantled the GB offensive line and blew the game wide open defensively. There’s still a lot of caution to be felt for this squad given the question marks around Zach Wilson as well as the division their in. But like sota and Philly on this list, you can’t deny the victories that exist. While things may change in the future, as of now, the Jets are a squad that have earned some respect.
Giants
Our final winner of the week is also the second NY based team on the list. It’s hard to believe that both these teams are good at the same time but here we are. After entering as 8 point underdogs against the Packers and pulling off the upset, common sense would’ve dictated that the 5-1 Giants can’t be any worse than a FG underdog right? Wrong, as this Danny Dimes led squad walked were 5.5 point dogs at home in MetLife playing a team that has a penchant for blowing solid leads. History tends to have a way of repeating itself and that’s exactly what happened in this game as the Ravens controlled the ball throughout the first half but had only built a 10-7 lead. Daniel Jones had another half where the numbers and the eye test continue to not match up. Jones by the numbers is having an average year at best and a terrible one at worst depending on how much you value yards compared to completion percentage. But Jones’s ability to manoeuvre inside and out of the pocket continues to be an underrated trait which is a comical thing to say for a guy who’s been sacked 19 times this season and faces pressure on seemingly every drop back. The third quarter featured a couple long drives by both squads that resulted in FG’s before scoring opened up in the 4th (sound familiar?). Lamar would do the things only he is capable of and a TD throw to Andrews would see the Ravens with a 10 point 4th quarter lead.
At this point in the season, this should have alarmed Ravens fans as this is the point where they blow leads while at the same time, this is where the Giants have rallied. They did it against GB the previous week and did it in their season opener against the Titans. It seemed like destiny as the Giants went on a near 7-minute TD drive to bring it to 3 points. With 3 minutes left facing a third and 6, it all fell apart. The snap was botched and while Lamar recovered it, he’d throw a baffling off balance pass into double coverage that got picked off. Three plays later and the Giants would score giving them a four-point cushion. Even after all that however, the Ravens still had a chance to win. They had the ball with 1:43 left on the clock and all three timeouts. Hope of a comeback however lasted all of two plays as Lamar would get stripped of the football and the Giants recovered, sealing the victory for big blue. It’s a game that encapsulated the season so far for both teams. The Ravens sealed defeat from the jaws of victory while the giants snatched victory. It can’t be sustainable for the Giants. It just can’t. Every statistic on earth is screaming that the Giants are fraudulent. By DVOA, they’re the second worst 5-1 team of all time. You could argue they should have lost at least 3 other games this season besides the one to Dallas. And yet, here they stand at 5-1. The running theme for the winners list this week is that you can only deny the record for so long. So… for now, the Giants belong on here. It likely won’t last but we’ve been calling for the demise of this team for an age and we haven’t arrived at it yet. Congrats Giants fans, no one understands how you’ve got these wins but as of now, your second in the NFC East and are playing a Jags team that makes game breaking decisions. Sounds like a recipe for a Giants win to me.
Losers
Ravens
Let’s kick off with the Ravens shall we. There’s no point diving into the game given we’ve already done that but yeesh, let’s discuss some Baltimore football. If the Vikings are a fraudulent 5-1 team, then you could call the Ravens a fake 2-3 team. In each of their three losses, they could have or should have, won the game. The disaster in Miami has already been well covered but just to refresh your memory, Baltimore had a 35-14, 4th quarter lead and saw it all slip away. Against the Bills, they held a 20-3 lead and a 10-point lead at half-time. They failed to score at all in the second half and lost by 3. Finally, against the Giants, they held a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter and lost the game, turning the ball over on each of their final two possessions. They’ve been outscored in the fourth quarter in 3 of their past four games (tied NE 6-6 in the other game). Lamar is almost averaging 300 total yards per game yet they still lack a leading WR to replace Hollywood Brown (who himself was hardly a WR1). Dobbins has just landed on IR and it seems like half their defence is either questionable, out or on IR. The one saving grace for this squad is that the division is an utter mess. Cincy hasn’t looked like the SB team of last year and they hold the tiebreaker over them. Perhaps the Browns once Watson comes back becomes a threat but there’s no guarantee their in a position to do come week 12. And the Steelers Steelers despite the hilarious and absurd win, are far from a divisional threat for the season. If the Ravens blow the game against the Browns though, some questions need to be laid at the feet of Harbough and Lamar moving forward.
Packers
Like the Ravens before them, this game has already been covered so I won’t dive into the paticulars for that one. Instead, let’s reflect and see if anything from their place in the losers column last week applies here.
“Instead, we saw an incredibly talented defence underperform while the offence moved away from its identity and lost themselves within this game. Rodgers doesn’t have the receiving talent to make this team a pass heavy threat. But the defence does have the talent to be a good to great defence which makes it all the more bizarre that they lost the way they did. They’ve got a week 6 matchup against the Jets who may have the firepower to upset this team which is a sentence I never thought I’d utter even a week ago.”
Yeah no, nothing has changed here it seems. Once again a talented defence underperformed and got scorched on the ground yet again. They now rank first in passing yards defensively but 27th in rushing yards. Although they average only 20.5 points allowed this season, that’s been cushioned through the opening three weeks of the season. Over the last two weeks, this defence has given up precisely 27 points each game whilst the offence has scored 22 and 10. Defensively it seems like things have been fairly consistent and although that outside look doesn’t take into account pick 6’s, turnovers, short field position and the like, it is indicative of the overall trend for where this team is going. Against a third string, 4th round rookie QB playing his first game with no prep time, it was enough as they beat NE. It hasn’t been enough the past two weeks though and the offence has looked like it’s struggling for air most of this season. It’s not just on the declining play of Rodgers either. The offensive line has been blown apart several times this season and the WR’s are hit and miss this season. Losing Cobb will only exacerbate their receiving issues and you have to wonder if Rodgers is envious of the success other rookie WR’s have had this year with far lesser QB’s. Even the run game hasn’t been working for them the past two weeks as Aaron Jones has been relegated to the void it seems like while AJ Dillion does the grunt work. It’s the first time in the Lafluer-Rodgers era that they’ve lost back to back games. It quite literally can’t get much worse. Fortunately for Rodgers, they have the Commies this week. If there was ever going to be a get right game, it’s this one. But the Commies have a feisty defence. That pass rush is as legit as they come and it won’t be a cruisy win where Rodgers gets to feel good. It’ll likely be a fight for the offence. But defensively, this is the game where GB should feast given the news of Wentz being out and Heinickie getting one last chance to dance.
Bucs
This is going to be a quick one as I just couldn’t bare to watch such an ugly and abysmal game but figure it was worth noting all the same. Brady’s one final ride hasn’t gone as expected to say the least. At no point did the Bucs lead this game. At half, the Bucs were down 10-9 thanks to a single long TD drive by the Steelers that got them a TD while the Bucs had plenty of success moving the ball but had to settle for a trio of FG’s. Even after a long return set the Steelers in the red zone, they were unable to score and another FG went up. Tampa would respond in kind before mercifully, another TD was scored giving the Steelers an 8-point lead. Yet again, Tampa would respond with their own score but were unable to convert on the two point conversion (despite nailing two fourth and ones on the drive) and stayed down two points.
It’s Trubitsky though needing to drive down the field and seal the game. Seemed likely the Bucs would get the ball back right? Wrong, facing a third and 15 after a botched snap the previous down, Trubitsky would hit Claypool and convert. But no matter, the Bucs would have one more crack at it on third and 11. Once again, Mitch would connect with Claypool and seal the game. You’re not reading that wrong by the way. On two critical third and longs, the Bucs gave up first downs and lost the game. Still, I wouldn’t lay the blame purely on the feet of the defence. They held PIT to 20 points. It was Brady and the offence that were unable to score TD’s despite the Steelers missing 3 starting corners in addition to TJ Watt. Brady was screaming at his offensive lineman on the sidelines in what seems like a weekly occurrence at this point. It hasn’t been the worst season for the Bucs to this point given they hold a .500 record. But they’re 3 wins were against Dallas in week one, the Saints in week two and the Falcons in week 5. In each of those games, Ryan Succop has kicked more FG’s than Brady has thrown TD’s. Brady has just a single game of passing for more than 1 TD. He’s thrown 40 or more times in each of his past four games and has thrown 50 or more in two of the past three. This is an offence that’s desperately slinging the ball and has little to show for it. Besides the KC game, they’ve failed to score anything more than 21 points this season. Tampa average 264 YPG through the air (good for 6th) but are dead last in rushing YPG (just 67.5). Like the Ravens, their saving grace is the division they’re in. They’ve beaten ATL and NO already and Carolina aren’t a threat to anybody. So they may wind up winning the division by default. But any hope of a SB run seems tenuous at best unless their able to fix the offence.
Broncos
We finally reach the weekly Broncos roast. Not going to lie, this is my favourite section of the column every week. I don’t know what else there is to say about Wilson at this point but I feel like it’s tradition to post what it cost Denver to acquire Wilson and what he’s produced since.
“Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed”.
“On the season, Wilson has completed 59.4% of his passes, averaging 250 YPG while throwing 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s and has been sacked 16 times”
So did Wilson improve on those numbers? In the first half, he sure as hell did as I suddenly got worried my Wilson roasts would be coming to an end. Ol Rusty initially looked pretty sharp as he was able to move and shift in the pocket like he used to, even managing to avoid a Kalil Mack sack on route to a big completion. He’d cap off two drives with 10 points while going 10 for 10. His TD pass was the first for Denver in 87 minutes of game time and they’d possess a 3 point going heading into the half. That’s as good as it would get though as it was only FG’s from there on out. Chargers would grab one in the third before Denver got one back after a Herbert INT. Both teams would get a chance to score one last time in regulation but neither came to close FG range and off to OT we went. After 174 total passing yards in the first half, Wilson would notch a grand total of 15 yards in the second. Guess what? Wilson wouldn’t add to that total in OT either as neither team picked up a single first down throughout the period. Despite everyone who’s not a Denver or Chargers fan rooting a tie, we were unlucky not to get one after a fumble on a punt return set up the Chargers for a game winning FG.
To recap that sloppy mess of a game; Denver’s defence held the chargers to 9 total points. They did not give up a single TD in the second half nor a first down in OT. Yet still the Broncos lost because Wilson had 6 more passing yards than the Chargers had scored points from the second half onwards. Russell Wilson managed to pull off a rare feat of both improving his numbers whilst at the same time playing even more disappointing football. A lot of things came out after this game regarding Wilson. A Subway add that was retracted. Video of him trying to hype up teammates whilst everyone ignored him. Obituaries written by the second on twitter as the game carried on in OT. A lot of this is kind of over the top and there’s something to be said about us as a whole probably being too mean to Wilson. But he’s also brought this upon himself to a certain extent. We haven’t heard him discuss his poor play at length. In fact, all we’ve heard is how Seattle protected, insulated and helped him thrive in that system which isn’t occurring here. I won’t delve into his personality as that’s a lot more speculative but his play on the field is the reason this team sits where it is. KC will almost certainly take the division. Perhaps a second place wild card berth is available given how good the defence is. But it’s hard to imagine that unless the offence drastically improves that they’ll be in the hunt come December when the tough part of their schedule occurs. It’s telling that with the recent news of Wilson missing time, there’s some hope that the offence improves under…. Brett Rypien. If you knew who that was prior to this week, kudos to you because few others do. He’s an undrafted player out of Boise St with a single career start to his name. But this may be the guy who gets Denver get on track. If that’s not the biggest statement as to Russell’s play this season, I don’t know what is.
TBD
KC- Bills
I didn’t get time to watch this game in full like I anticipated I would so instead of a deep dive into this one, I’ll have to leave with a promise to review it somewhere down the line. As of now, I left both teams off the list given the razor close nature of the victory. While you could certainly argue it was a major victory for the Bills to beat their main AFC rival on the road, I just didn’t have the time to watch this game and assess it like I properly should. So yes, the Bills are more or less in the winner’s column but I’m placing it aside here for now until I get a chance to review it.
That’s it for another week. Apologies for not getting to the Bills KC game. Hopefully get to it another week.